PokerStars Game #35787282398: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2009/11/24 10:59:56 ET

Table 'Eduarda V' 6-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: syki ($66.75 in chips)

Seat 2: Dravs ($51.25 in chips)

Seat 3: TOSnail ($68.75 in chips)

Seat 4: AggJedi ($58.10 in chips)

Seat 5: conny17 ($50.65 in chips)

Seat 6: J-mingus ($56.70 in chips)

TOSnail: posts small blind $0.25

AggJedi: posts big blind $0.50

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to AggJedi [Ac Qs]

conny17: calls $0.50

J-mingus: folds

syki: folds

Dravs: folds

TOSnail: folds

AggJedi: raises $1.50 to $2

conny17: calls $1.50

*** FLOP *** [Ks 3c Qc]

AggJedi: bets $2

conny17: calls $2

*** TURN *** [Ks 3c Qc] [Jc]

AggJedi: bets $4

conny17: raises $6.50 to $10.50

AggJedi: calls $6.50

*** RIVER *** [Ks 3c Qc Jc] [Qh]

AggJedi: checks

conny17: bets $14.50

AggJedi: folds

Uncalled bet ($14.50) returned to conny17

conny17 collected $27.85 from pot

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot $29.25 | Rake $1.40

Board [Ks 3c Qc Jc Qh]

Seat 1: syki folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 2: Dravs (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 3: TOSnail (small blind) folded before Flop

Seat 4: AggJedi (big blind) folded on the River

Seat 5: conny17 collected ($27.85)

Seat 6: J-mingus folded before Flop (didn't bet)

UTG limper is 50/19 over 71 hands, he calls 23% of opens. I normally make it 5bbs here, 4 was just a misclick.

His postflop aggression numbers are 36, 45 and 50 for flop/turn/river. So I figure if I check here on this flop he may or may not bet but I didn't want to check/guess on every street. So I figure there also value to be had from worse Qx hands, and draws. I'm not sure if I should be betting this from in position as well if I were say on the BTN instead this hand, but I am much more inclined to bet it out of position for if not anything else to just make the hand easier to play. When he flats, his range is wide, it can be any flush draw, any pocket pair just peeling once, JT, Qx, Kx, or a slowplayed big hand like 33, given his numbers I figure he would raise KQ pre but with these guys you never can know for sure.

I figure the turn to be a mediocre card overall, all the FDs got there, but now any pair he had with a club will likely call, and if he did have Kx we have a ton more equity. I'm really not sure what my play should be on the turn, I figured either bet half pot or check/call. Given that i'm willing to call a bet I might as well bet myself to get value from pair+fds that would check behind that I can still extract from. So I bet 4 into 8.25 pot, he then raises to 10.50. I think at this point his range is heavily weighted towards a flush, and our out to the straight will be good some small% of the time against a hand like QJ or KJ. Against a hand like 7c6c we are going to improve on the river to a flush just about 16% of the time, meaning we are a 5.25 to 1 underdog. However we are getting 3.5 to 1 on the turn, and if the math I did is correct, we will need to make 11.38 on the river when we do hit, and when the pot is going to be $30 already, I figure we can lead for half pot when we do hit and get called by a worse flush out of frustration if nothing else.

Even though it should be simple math I just want to make sure i'm doing it right. The way I got to that 11.38 number we need to acquire on the river when we hit to break even was by taking the difference of the odds we are getting and the odds we will improve and multiplied it by how much it is to call on the turn. (5.25 - 3.50 = 1.75 x 6.50 = 11.38), this is the correct way to figure out how much more we need to BE right?

So on the river I miss my flush but hit trips, he bets half pot and I think it's actually an easy fold. Given the range of hands he raises the turn with, I don't think this card helps us much at all, only against something like KJ and that likely isn't even betting the river, even if it is it's not a large enough portion of his range to justify a call, it's going to be a flush, straight or boat (my guess in order from most to least likely) just too often.