PokerStars Game #35789384728: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2009/11/24 11:59:35 ET

Table 'Meissa III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button

Seat 1: AggJedi ($71.05 in chips)

Seat 2: generous12 ($52.65 in chips)

Seat 3: Siracho ($86.80 in chips)

Seat 4: kjetil4 ($50 in chips)

Seat 5: Toffe103 ($27.90 in chips)

Seat 6: Qassen ($61.20 in chips)

kjetil4: posts small blind $0.25

Toffe103: posts big blind $0.50

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to AggJedi [Kc Kh]

Qassen: folds

AggJedi: raises $1 to $1.50

generous12: folds

Siracho: calls $1.50

kjetil4: calls $1.25

Toffe103: folds

*** FLOP *** [Th 8s Ad]

kjetil4: checks

AggJedi: bets $2.50

Siracho: calls $2.50

kjetil4: folds

*** TURN *** [Th 8s Ad] [3s]

AggJedi: checks

Siracho: checks

*** RIVER *** [Th 8s Ad 3s] [Ks]

AggJedi: bets $3

Siracho: raises $11 to $14

So the BTN caller (over about 150 hands) is 22/17, calls 22% of opens from the BTN, I figure that against a MP raise it's probably in the 15-17% range, so i'd give him a range of: 22-TT, A2s-AQs , KTs-KQs, QTs-QJs, 76s-JTs, ATo-AQo, KJo, KQo, QJo which is 15.8%. His 3b was 9% and actually 0% from the BTN, 100% of his 3bets took place from the small and big blind, so I figure his btn 3betting range to be pretty tight and that's why I decided to put AQ in his calling range, JJ may be in there too but I figure he's more likely to 3b that rather than flat.

The SB overcaller (over about 120 hands) is a 16/11 with a call open of 12% and a squeeze of 0%. I figure he would likely squeeze his premiums here but likely not often at all as a bluff. His calling range is probably something like: TT-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-AJo,KJo+,QJo, which is pretty similar just a bit tighter to our BTN caller.

So on the flop, I figure the sb is checking his entire range and likely to play pretty straightforward. The BTN has a fold to cb of 50% over 6 instances, but he has a low turn aggression, only 24%, so I didn't think that I would get floated too much here, so my plan was to bet the flop, check the turn and maybe bet small again if the turn checks through for value depending on what cards fall.

So the flop and turn go as played and we hit the river pretty hard. Given how I felt the BTN would play on the flop and turn with hands we're beating, I figure that we're good on this river quite a while, but that card overall is not good for his range. So I decided that he likely doesn't have many Ax hands in his range, so he probably has hands worse than even Kx, so I went for about a 1/3rd pot bet trying to squeeze out value from those hands. I don't think betting larger does us much good as he's going to fold most of his weak range on this scary board.

When he raises here on this river I think i'm actually fucked a decent % of the time here. I can't really think of any value hands he would play this way that are worse than ours, maybe like KT but given card removal that hand is extremely unlikely. AK isn't in his range due to preflop, it could be a slowplayed set of 8s or Ts but I really think he would have just bet the turn with those hands. For similar reasons I doubt he's slowplaying 2pair on that turn given how drawy the board is. I think this will end up being Tx of spades or Ax of spades most of the time, especially if his kicker is small and he sees no reason to bet the turn as there isn't much worse that will call him.

I feel like given his range preflop and how we got to the river, the only way that we are good here is if he slowplayed, or if he is now turning a mediocre made hand into a bluff, which I guess isn't impossible given how weak I played the hand he could think he could just bluffraise with like JT here, but I doubt many NL50 players are pulling shit like this.