Saturday, November 28, 2009

PokerStars Game #35787752582: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2009/11/24 11:13:54 ET
Table 'Urda' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Wieger1980 ($152.90 in chips)
Seat 2: TEMBLORES ($20 in chips)
Seat 3: Karamazov22 ($102.30 in chips)
Seat 4: BlackShadow0 ($74.95 in chips)
Seat 5: aky9999 ($57.25 in chips)
Seat 6: AggJedi ($59.85 in chips)
BlackShadow0: posts small blind $0.25
aky9999: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AggJedi [Ah Qc]
AggJedi: raises $1 to $1.50
Wieger1980: folds
TEMBLORES: folds
Karamazov22: folds
BlackShadow0: calls $1.25
aky9999: folds
*** FLOP *** [6c Qd 4d]
BlackShadow0: checks
AggJedi: bets $2.50
BlackShadow0: calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [6c Qd 4d] [8c]
BlackShadow0: checks
AggJedi: bets $7
BlackShadow0: calls $7
*** RIVER *** [6c Qd 4d 8c] [4s]
BlackShadow0: checks
AggJedi: bets $19


So our villain is a 25/6/75(call open) over 17 hands, so not a lot of info on him.

I think the flop and turn are both obviously standard, but my main question is the river.

I think our opponents range of hands that can get to the river are: 77,55,AdKd,AQs,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,
Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KQs,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,Q9s+,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,86s+,75s+,AQo,KQo,QTo+
Basically a lot of busted draws, some pocket pairs, a lot of Qx hands, and some strong hands. I gave him 88, 5s and 86s for his strong hands because I didn't know how many strong hands he would have in his range, so I only gave him the ones he could have turned but assume all combos.

I know we're betting here, that's not the question, sizing is what i'm wondering about here. The pot is 22.50 and we have 48.85 effective. I feel like betting between 6-8 isn't horrible to get calls from pairs under the Q, and potentially Ax of diamond hands that might just get stubborn. And we'll still get some, just not max value from a worse Q. Or should we go for a more medium sized bet like 10-13 to try and get more value from Qx, and still a call from something like 8x+, but assume to get paid off vs A hi much more rarely if ever.

We could bet big here too, full pot or even more, to rep a missed flush draw that's just trying to steal the pot, I really don't know if he would lay down a hand like QJ if we made it like 30 here, I mean, I can't imagine trying to bluff a loose/passive off of a TP type hand when all the draws brick.

Final question about this hand is what do we do if he shoves? We will have about 29 left to call and about 70 in the pot.

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