New Goals: Trying to identify good spots to 3 barrel, and overall spots where people are playing wide weak ranges and trying to take them off of them. I still have to focus on taking my time with my decisions more, I made at least 4 misclicks yesterday that weren't costly but just very annoying.
In Progress: Finding more spots to 3b lite, bluff raising more flops, extracting max value with my strong hands.
Weaknesses: Folding too much, there are lots of spots that are super standard folds for me that I know good players would never give up. I realized that I have basically just trained myself to be way too fit or fold and I have to do whatever I can to lose that mindset, which will overall come from identifying specific spots where i'm giving up way too easily and from there not being as willing to give up a pot.
Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 539609
MP: $157.55
CO: $101.50
BTN: $76.85
SB: $100.00
BB: $101.50
Hero (UTG): $101.50
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with 4
4
4Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, BB calls $2
Flop: ($6.50) 3 2 J (2 players)
2 J (2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Turn: ($14.50) K (2 players)
(2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12
River: ($38.50) 3
(2 players)
(2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $28
Villain is a 15/13, he is at 5 of my tables, and he's only on 5 tables total. I havn't really seen much from him so I assume he's just a standard nit.
My open is standard, I figure this guy is calling with something like JJ-22,AQs-AJs,KQs,AJo+,KQo. He may 3b JJ, he may fold AJo, and he might never call with AKo but I figured to include these hands out of lack of certainty.
My cbet is pretty standard, trying to take him off of his overcards which will work often, and when he does call, I feel like I can barrel the overcards he folds on the flop because they're no longer in his range. His continuing range is going to be: JJ-66,33-22,AsQs,AcJc,AdJd,AhJh,KsQs,AJo I didn't give him 44 or 55 because I think nits folds those hands there a decent portion of the time.
Turn is a good card to barrel to try and get him off of his smaller pairs than a Jack. I expect him to call with all the draws, Jx, and maybe even some pocket pairs that are just being stubborn.
When I bet the river, looking at it now, I don't know if I should expect him to fold AJ, at the time I did, and if it was me I would as well. Overall i'm not 100% on my river bet, but I am on the action leading up to the river.
Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 540027
Hero (CO): $105.95
BTN: $159.55
SB: $475.30
BB: $100.00
UTG: $104.00
MP: $100.00
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with J J
J1 fold, MP raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 3 folds
Flop: ($7.50) 7 2
T (2 players)
2 T (2 players)MP bets $4, Hero calls $4
Turn: ($15.50) 6 (2 players)
(2 players)MP bets $10, Hero calls $10
River: ($35.50) T (2 players)
(2 players)MP checks, Hero bets $21, MP folds
Villain is 21/18 over 100 hands, he cbets 67%, folds cb to raise 100%, hasn't barreled yet. His fold to 3b is 50% and he hasn't 4b yet.
I think his opening range is something like 22+,A4s+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo, this is a little over 14%, his raise 1st % from MP is 14% so this is what i'd expect him to show up with.
I flat pre for several reasons. I havn't 3b him yet, so it will look strong, he probably isn't going to call with a dominated range. If he 4bets I feel compelled to get it in, and i'm not comfortable doing that right now. And several other reasons are the last 3 players left to act all have a squeeze% of 10+ even though I have only 80ish hands on all of them, that's something worth considering. I'm obviously going to backraise when squozed.
He bet very small on the flop, and I consider raising here because I want to charge his overcards or 89 to draw. He seems to fold to flop raises a lot though and I think I can extract more on the turn and river if he does have a weaker pair, so I decide to call.
The turn brings in the 89 draw but he bets weak again. I think he can have a T here, maybe 99 or 88, maybe a turned FD or a 7x type hand. Overall I think his range isn't very strong and I think we're in good shape. Fuck, looking at it now this would be a really good spot to raise the turn to get value from his draws and stuff wouldn't it be. I'm not sure but I didn't consider a turn raise as much as I did a flop raise at the time of playing the hand, I wonder what your thoughts are on a turn raise. Something like 3x to charge draws, but then if he wants to stack off we're in a shit spot.
Anyways, river T hits and he checks, I don't give the average NL100 6m player credit for expecting me to value bet this river thin and go for a check raise with Tx so I figure he'll just keep firing with a T. Which would make his range very weak when he checks the river. I bet to get value from any of his weaker pairs, which I think there are many given my perception of his turn value betting range.
i mean hes probably not going to fold AJ, but youre not really trying to make him fold a jack. folding a jack as him would be pretty bad. if the turn was an ace it would be a different story but theres just not that many kings in an utg range. however were trying to make him folds 8s or 9s or w/e. i think its ok although al the sds missed and both fds missed so he might look u up light. if he does take a note and try not to barrel him as much. does he c/r at all? whats his fold to cbet? his fold to turn cbet? whats his wtsd? he may not have any easy folds by the river left in his range, in which case despite the fact that we advocate trying to find places to fire, it may not be a great spot to do so. id much rather u make aggressive mistakes than passive mistakes though. hes also probably not going to c/c draws twice. id imagine he either c/rs the flop or folds the turn unless he has sd value to go along w the draw.
ReplyDeletethe thing is if he had a ten he woudlnt c/r it. when u c/r the river for value u have to be ahead of their calling range. if he were going to c/r the river for value it would be AT+ most likely a striaght + since AT blocks most of the hands that would b/c. plus any hand 99- would just take the free showdown bc there isnt really much point to betting no draws missed, no real way to get herod etc. im going to tell you a secret. you can raise / fold the turn if youre confident he will pay off w worse but never shove unless youre beat. i mean i would probably put in a raise at some point just bc his line looks so weak that id be fairly sure i had the best hand and hes not really all that likely to fire 3 given the player profile. i would consider 3betting him pending his MP open %, although having 3 sqzers behind is certainly reason to just flat, and probably most +EV decision. What are u doing if he bets the river? 25 into 35? 15 into 35? 30 into 35?
the first hand i would never ever fold AJ given the action btw. i think folding any jack is a pretty big mistake. think about how many value hands you have compared to how many bluffs / semi bluffs u have that missed (most of which id expect to get fired given the runout); then look at the pot oddds youre receiving. granted every value hand is going to bet and not every bluff will but so it goes.
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